THE FINANCIAL COMMUTE
Hosted by Wealth Advisor Chris Galeski, THE FINANCIAL COMMUTE is a weekly podcast that gives the rundown on what's going on in the current market, how it affects you, and what you can do about it – all designed to fit into your commute. Each week Chris welcomes an expert guest, including Morton Wealth advisors, fund managers, and investment analysts, to break down complex financial topics. Our goal for this podcast is to provide you with the tools to help you navigate this challenging environment, leading to a path of more confident investing.
THE FINANCIAL COMMUTE
Is SpaceX a Good Investment?
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SpaceX is going public and everyone is talking about it. Neighbors, friends, group chats... the excitement is real. But most of the conversation is missing the most important question: what are you actually paying for?
In this episode of Financial Commute, host Chris Galeski sits down with CEO and Partner Jeff Sarti to break down the SpaceX IPO from a valuation standpoint. Recorded on June 8th, this is the conversation the headlines are not having. Chris and Jeff walk through what price to sales ratio means, why a $10 stock is not cheap and a $1,000 stock is not expensive, and what history tells us about companies trading at extreme valuations. The story is incredible. The price is another matter entirely.
Key Takeaways
- Stock price tells you nothing about value. A $10 stock is not cheap and a $1,000 stock is not expensive. What matters is the underlying valuation — and SpaceX at roughly 100 times price to sales is extreme by any historical measure.
- A great company is not automatically a great stock. Rivian grew its revenue 100 times over and is still down 90% from its IPO price. Cisco was the largest company in the world during the dot-com boom and collapsed 90% — taking 27 years to recover. Growth does not guarantee returns at any price.
- 100 times price to sales is not a growth premium — it is speculation. The S&P 500 is currently at an all-time high of roughly 3.5 times price to sales. SpaceX is trading at nearly 30 times that. Even if SpaceX fell 80% from its IPO price, it would still be more expensive than Nvidia on a price to sales basis.
- Volatility is near-certain even in good outcomes. Facebook fell 50% within six months of its IPO before going on to become one of the most valuable companies in the world. Buyers of the SpaceX IPO should expect a similarly turbulent ride regardless of the long-term outcome.